Secondly it was reported 31 minutes ago that US drones hit a target in N. Waziristan in the area controlled by the Haqqani Network. This attack reportedly killed at least six. The drum beat of attacks has again picked up in North Waziristan as an attack was launched yesterday. When reading the article from the Long War Journal pay special attention to the number of Britons and Germans killed over the last several months.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Busy day
Hezbollah walked out of the Lebanese government today over the Hariri murder investigation and the fact it is going to be proven they carried out the attack which in turn proves the Syria and Iran were behind the attack. While I doubt would go as far as to point fingers at the states that sponsor Hezbollah it goes without saying they were aware it was going to happen. Also Hezbollah does not like to be seen as anything but a a legitimate political party remember they are defenders of Lebanon not terrorists. This report could have far reaching consequences on the world's out look on Hezbollah. However unfortunately I doubt most Americans even know who or what Hezbollah is or represents.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
ISAF captures Qods Force-linked Taliban leader in Afghan west - The Long War Journal
ISAF captures Qods Force-linked Taliban leader in Afghan west - The Long War Journal
Iran continues to kill US and allied forces. When is the US going to realize that in fact Iran has been at war with us for a very long time.
Iran continues to kill US and allied forces. When is the US going to realize that in fact Iran has been at war with us for a very long time.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Haqqani Network Under-Siege
“I will never forget the anger in the eyes of those Saudis when my friend and I, obviously Westerners, entered to talk with Haqqani .
Introduction:
What does the quote from the 1980s have to do with the status of the modern day Haqqani Network (HN)? There are reports that the Haqqanis may at least for the time being have been targeted enough that their activities have been suppressed. I bring up the Saudi connection because there are forces outside of US control that have a stake in keeping the HN active. The HN has a generation of outside support from the Middle East that could keep the group flush with money that would allow the group to continue to recruit, train, equip, and operate. From their sanctuary in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan the Haqqanis have rebuilt their forces since the Soviet invasion in 1979.
Current Operations:
The Haqqani network is being targeted in both of their strongholds, in the FATA by increasing US drone strikes and in Afghanistan by US and allied special and conventional forces.
In Pakistan the continuing drone strikes have focused on North Waziristan and the Haqqani and al-Qaeda (AQ) networks there. September and October of 2010 saw 34 drone strikes in HN areas with 206 killed. In addition two “hot pursuit” helicopter attacks killed another 50 Haqqani fighters. In Afghanistan at least 30 HN members were captured in Khost province alone during the month of December . “The so called HN is on its heels” in eastern Afghanistan “we have captured and killed many many of their fighters and mid level leaders” according to Army Col. Viet Luong .
This assault against the HN which began in 2009 has used a popular police tactic when dealing with gangs. Pick up enough of the foot soldiers and mid-level commanders and gang operations begin to be affected. In a report to the British government September – November of 2010 British and US Special operations and conventional forces killed 3200 Taliban including 387 mid and high level commanders . In addition to this attempts by the HN to launch large scale attacks have also been unsuccessful. August – October 2010 the HN launched four large scale assaults to see them all repulsed with a loss of at least 112 fighters . These losses may have caused the HN to have to change their tactics.
“The Haqqani’s have been forced to scale back attacks on district centers, fortified government infrastructure, and mass infantry attacks throughout the latter half of 2009 and first half of 2010, out of concern for the loss of indigenous human capital. The population that Haqqani relies on for recruits, shelter, and support has grown increasingly frustrated with the preponderance of civilian casualties and the death of recruits in Haqqani-linked operations. The Haqqanis have not been able to conduct large scale direct assaults and instead have relied increasingly on asymmetric attacks such as IEDs .”
Another sign of success against the HN is that they have not launched a major attack in Kabul in over seven months . Previously the group has tried to assassinate President Karzai, used suicide borne vehicle improvised explosive devices, and sophisticated suicide bombing attacks that were supported by assault teams to get the bomber to their target.
The 2010 fighting season has slowed down and the HN have been knocked back some. Now is the time to talk about 2011.
2011:
While the Haqqanis might have trouble recruiting from their own Zadran tribe as noted above, the HN has extensive contacts with foreign fighters and can replenish their ranks with them. During the anti-Soviet jihad Jallaldin (the patriarch) attracted and organized Arab volunteers . Fast forward and the Haqqanis are still if not more aligned with foreign fighters and now AQ. Siraq Haqqani, Jallaladin’s son has extended is families involvement not only with the Taliban but also international terrorists. Major Chris Belcher “Siraj Haqqani’s extended reach brings foreign fighters from places like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chchnya, Turkey and Middle Eastern Countries into Afghanistan” Lt Col. Anders adds “Sirajuudin’s allegiance is not with the Zadran tribe, or Afghans, but with Arabs and AQ .” The foreign angle as mentioned previously also has to deal with fund raising. Nasiruddin Haqqani was recently arrested in Pakistan he is known to have made fund raising trips to the Gulf States . As Nariuddin has not been publically turned over to the US time will tell if he was taken into protective custody so he would not be killed in a drone attack or actually arrested.
Foreign fighter recruitment has never been an issue for the HN. Within Pakistan and even within N. Waziristan allied Pakistani groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have and continue to work within the HN. This is interesting because all of these groups have in the past or still are receiving protection and support from Pakistan’s security forces. A disturbing development is that European recruits have been killed in drone strikes in N. Waziristan with some traveling from England and Germany.
There is no crystal Ball to see what the HN will do in 2011 but a tactical resurgence will be needed to keep them on the top of the terrorist pecking order. The HN is going to need to make a statement with some type of attack that will increase their prestige. This will help them consolidate their power base and continue their take over and influence of other Taliban and affiliated groups.
As noted above Zadran tribal loyalties are on the edge due to the many casualties that they have taken. Recently in Sangin district of Helmand province the Alikozai tribe agreed to stop fighting the Marines and Afghan forces there and aid them in kicking out foreign fighters. The reason is because of Marine assaults on them had forced them to the negotiating table . Some think that counter-insurgency operations do not involve combat this is a mistake. Kinetic operations are used to kill those who will not lay down their arms against the government. In some cases finding a weakness such as a tribe’s casualties and exploiting it with kinetic operations to push them over the edge. This situation also happened in al-Anbar province in Iraq when the local Sunnis tired of losing their sons and fathers to Marine and Army units and whole villages being killed by AQ the tribes finally stopped shooting. The only way to for sure keep the HN work down is to continue to kill their rank and file in “an industrial way” forcing the Zadran tribe away from HN. As the HN has to rely on more and more foreign fighters they maybe seen as no longer an Afghan group but as just another outside force. Combine this with a continued drone campaign against HN leadership in the FATA that will force them to stay on the move and in hiding therefore unable to lead as well as they once did when they enjoyed absolute freedom in N. Waziristan.
Bibliography
3,200 Taliban Killed in Afghanistan in 90 Days. Decemeber 1, 2010. http://www.sify.com/news/3-200-taliban-killed-in-afghanistan-in-90-days-news-international-kmbruiihcdf.html (accessed January 11, 2011).
Associated Press. Shiite Deal Gives Militants New Afghan Access. November 27, 2010. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/11/27/shiite-deal-gives-militants-new-afghan-access/ (accessed January 9, 2011).
Coll, Stephen. Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001. New York: Penguin Books, 2004.
Dressler, Jeffrey A. "The Haqqani Network From Pakistan to Afghanistan." www.understandingwar.org. October 2010. http://www.understandingwar.org/files/Haqqani_Network_Compressed.pdf (accessed January 11, 2011).
Haqqani Family Fortunes. November 5, 2010. http://search.janes.com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/Search/documentView.do?docId=/content1/janesdata/mags/jtsm/history/jtsm2011/jtsm5447.htm@current&pageSelected=allJanes&keyword=siraj%20haqqani&backPath=http://search.janes.com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/Search&Prod_Name=JT (accessed January 9, 2011).
ISAF Joint Command. Afghan, Coalition Forces Capture Another Haqqani Leader in Khost. December 22, 2010. http://www.dvidshub.net/news/62505/afghan-coalition-forces-capture-another-haqqani-leader-khost (accessed January 9, 2011).
Kaplan, Robert D. Soldiers of God: With Islamic Warrios in Afghanistan and Pakistan. New York: Vintage Departures, 2001.
Lamothe, Dan. Report: Marine Assaults on Insurgents in Sangin 'Convinced' Tribe to Reach Agreement. January 5, 2011. http://militarytimes.com/blogs/battle-rattle/2011/01/05/report-sangin-tribal-elder-kidnapped-after-brokering-truce-with-marines/ (accessed January 11, 2011).
Lawrence, Chris. Pakistani Sources: Son of Notorious Insurgent Leader is Arrested . Decemeber 24, 2010. http://afghanistan.blogs.cnn.com/2010/12/24/pakistani-sources-son-of-notorious-insurgent-leader-is-arrested/ (accessed January 9, 2011).
Roggio, Bill. US Troops Repel Haqqani Network Assault on Eastern Afghan Base. October 30, 2010. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/us_troops_repel_haqq.php (accessed 2011 9, January).
Schmitt, Eric. Taliban Fighters Appear Blunted in Afghanistan. Decemeber 26, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/27/world/asia/27policy.html (accessed January 9, 2011).
Vanden Brook, Tom. Coalition Attacks Sap Key Insurgent in Afghanistan. December 28, 2010. http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/afghanistan/2010-12-29-dronestrikes29_ST_N.htm (accessed January 9, 2011).
Introduction:
What does the quote from the 1980s have to do with the status of the modern day Haqqani Network (HN)? There are reports that the Haqqanis may at least for the time being have been targeted enough that their activities have been suppressed. I bring up the Saudi connection because there are forces outside of US control that have a stake in keeping the HN active. The HN has a generation of outside support from the Middle East that could keep the group flush with money that would allow the group to continue to recruit, train, equip, and operate. From their sanctuary in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan the Haqqanis have rebuilt their forces since the Soviet invasion in 1979.
Current Operations:
The Haqqani network is being targeted in both of their strongholds, in the FATA by increasing US drone strikes and in Afghanistan by US and allied special and conventional forces.
In Pakistan the continuing drone strikes have focused on North Waziristan and the Haqqani and al-Qaeda (AQ) networks there. September and October of 2010 saw 34 drone strikes in HN areas with 206 killed. In addition two “hot pursuit” helicopter attacks killed another 50 Haqqani fighters. In Afghanistan at least 30 HN members were captured in Khost province alone during the month of December . “The so called HN is on its heels” in eastern Afghanistan “we have captured and killed many many of their fighters and mid level leaders” according to Army Col. Viet Luong .
This assault against the HN which began in 2009 has used a popular police tactic when dealing with gangs. Pick up enough of the foot soldiers and mid-level commanders and gang operations begin to be affected. In a report to the British government September – November of 2010 British and US Special operations and conventional forces killed 3200 Taliban including 387 mid and high level commanders . In addition to this attempts by the HN to launch large scale attacks have also been unsuccessful. August – October 2010 the HN launched four large scale assaults to see them all repulsed with a loss of at least 112 fighters . These losses may have caused the HN to have to change their tactics.
“The Haqqani’s have been forced to scale back attacks on district centers, fortified government infrastructure, and mass infantry attacks throughout the latter half of 2009 and first half of 2010, out of concern for the loss of indigenous human capital. The population that Haqqani relies on for recruits, shelter, and support has grown increasingly frustrated with the preponderance of civilian casualties and the death of recruits in Haqqani-linked operations. The Haqqanis have not been able to conduct large scale direct assaults and instead have relied increasingly on asymmetric attacks such as IEDs .”
Another sign of success against the HN is that they have not launched a major attack in Kabul in over seven months . Previously the group has tried to assassinate President Karzai, used suicide borne vehicle improvised explosive devices, and sophisticated suicide bombing attacks that were supported by assault teams to get the bomber to their target.
The 2010 fighting season has slowed down and the HN have been knocked back some. Now is the time to talk about 2011.
2011:
While the Haqqanis might have trouble recruiting from their own Zadran tribe as noted above, the HN has extensive contacts with foreign fighters and can replenish their ranks with them. During the anti-Soviet jihad Jallaldin (the patriarch) attracted and organized Arab volunteers . Fast forward and the Haqqanis are still if not more aligned with foreign fighters and now AQ. Siraq Haqqani, Jallaladin’s son has extended is families involvement not only with the Taliban but also international terrorists. Major Chris Belcher “Siraj Haqqani’s extended reach brings foreign fighters from places like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chchnya, Turkey and Middle Eastern Countries into Afghanistan” Lt Col. Anders adds “Sirajuudin’s allegiance is not with the Zadran tribe, or Afghans, but with Arabs and AQ .” The foreign angle as mentioned previously also has to deal with fund raising. Nasiruddin Haqqani was recently arrested in Pakistan he is known to have made fund raising trips to the Gulf States . As Nariuddin has not been publically turned over to the US time will tell if he was taken into protective custody so he would not be killed in a drone attack or actually arrested.
Foreign fighter recruitment has never been an issue for the HN. Within Pakistan and even within N. Waziristan allied Pakistani groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have and continue to work within the HN. This is interesting because all of these groups have in the past or still are receiving protection and support from Pakistan’s security forces. A disturbing development is that European recruits have been killed in drone strikes in N. Waziristan with some traveling from England and Germany.
There is no crystal Ball to see what the HN will do in 2011 but a tactical resurgence will be needed to keep them on the top of the terrorist pecking order. The HN is going to need to make a statement with some type of attack that will increase their prestige. This will help them consolidate their power base and continue their take over and influence of other Taliban and affiliated groups.
As noted above Zadran tribal loyalties are on the edge due to the many casualties that they have taken. Recently in Sangin district of Helmand province the Alikozai tribe agreed to stop fighting the Marines and Afghan forces there and aid them in kicking out foreign fighters. The reason is because of Marine assaults on them had forced them to the negotiating table . Some think that counter-insurgency operations do not involve combat this is a mistake. Kinetic operations are used to kill those who will not lay down their arms against the government. In some cases finding a weakness such as a tribe’s casualties and exploiting it with kinetic operations to push them over the edge. This situation also happened in al-Anbar province in Iraq when the local Sunnis tired of losing their sons and fathers to Marine and Army units and whole villages being killed by AQ the tribes finally stopped shooting. The only way to for sure keep the HN work down is to continue to kill their rank and file in “an industrial way” forcing the Zadran tribe away from HN. As the HN has to rely on more and more foreign fighters they maybe seen as no longer an Afghan group but as just another outside force. Combine this with a continued drone campaign against HN leadership in the FATA that will force them to stay on the move and in hiding therefore unable to lead as well as they once did when they enjoyed absolute freedom in N. Waziristan.
Bibliography
3,200 Taliban Killed in Afghanistan in 90 Days. Decemeber 1, 2010. http://www.sify.com/news/3-200-taliban-killed-in-afghanistan-in-90-days-news-international-kmbruiihcdf.html (accessed January 11, 2011).
Associated Press. Shiite Deal Gives Militants New Afghan Access. November 27, 2010. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/11/27/shiite-deal-gives-militants-new-afghan-access/ (accessed January 9, 2011).
Coll, Stephen. Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001. New York: Penguin Books, 2004.
Dressler, Jeffrey A. "The Haqqani Network From Pakistan to Afghanistan." www.understandingwar.org. October 2010. http://www.understandingwar.org/files/Haqqani_Network_Compressed.pdf (accessed January 11, 2011).
Haqqani Family Fortunes. November 5, 2010. http://search.janes.com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/Search/documentView.do?docId=/content1/janesdata/mags/jtsm/history/jtsm2011/jtsm5447.htm@current&pageSelected=allJanes&keyword=siraj%20haqqani&backPath=http://search.janes.com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/Search&Prod_Name=JT (accessed January 9, 2011).
ISAF Joint Command. Afghan, Coalition Forces Capture Another Haqqani Leader in Khost. December 22, 2010. http://www.dvidshub.net/news/62505/afghan-coalition-forces-capture-another-haqqani-leader-khost (accessed January 9, 2011).
Kaplan, Robert D. Soldiers of God: With Islamic Warrios in Afghanistan and Pakistan. New York: Vintage Departures, 2001.
Lamothe, Dan. Report: Marine Assaults on Insurgents in Sangin 'Convinced' Tribe to Reach Agreement. January 5, 2011. http://militarytimes.com/blogs/battle-rattle/2011/01/05/report-sangin-tribal-elder-kidnapped-after-brokering-truce-with-marines/ (accessed January 11, 2011).
Lawrence, Chris. Pakistani Sources: Son of Notorious Insurgent Leader is Arrested . Decemeber 24, 2010. http://afghanistan.blogs.cnn.com/2010/12/24/pakistani-sources-son-of-notorious-insurgent-leader-is-arrested/ (accessed January 9, 2011).
Roggio, Bill. US Troops Repel Haqqani Network Assault on Eastern Afghan Base. October 30, 2010. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/us_troops_repel_haqq.php (accessed 2011 9, January).
Schmitt, Eric. Taliban Fighters Appear Blunted in Afghanistan. Decemeber 26, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/27/world/asia/27policy.html (accessed January 9, 2011).
Vanden Brook, Tom. Coalition Attacks Sap Key Insurgent in Afghanistan. December 28, 2010. http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/afghanistan/2010-12-29-dronestrikes29_ST_N.htm (accessed January 9, 2011).
Today in Pakistan
An estimated 40,000 people demonstrated in favor of keeping Pakistan's strict anti-blasphemy law. An interesting quote from on of the speakers is that the blasphemy law "is a divine law" I have read a good bit of the Koran and do not recall anything in it about a state enacting a law of this sort. From Dawn: "Alas! There is simply is no justification, theological or otherwise. Respected and deeply learned Islamic scholars like Javed Ahmed Ghamidi have repeatedly insisted that there is no historical or theological example or space in the workings of Islam for a law such as the blasphemy law."
What started all of this is that a Christian woman offered some farm hands she worked with some water. The Muslims thinking that since the water was touched by a Christian it was unclean and she was attacking their Muslimness which of course blasphemes against Mohammed. The woman was then gang raped and when the case went before a judge he sentenced her to hang. Now the woman is still in custody and the Pakistanis have increased here security in the hopes that she will not be killed in prison. Meanwhile a reward of $Rs30 has been put on this woman's head by a mullah which the Pakistanis are trying to find.
Keep in mind the number of people at the rally today and then the number of people who commented on a very good article out of Pakistan that I linked to above. There are only 250 some odd comments in support of the article what is 250 v 40,000 that protested today.
Is it really any wonder that the tribal areas have not been dealt with? When the security services are so penetrated by jihadists and those that would use the Taliban and AQ as proxies to fight both India and the U.S.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Earlier this week
I posted on the truce signed in Sangin province with the Alikozai which is the largest in the area. At the time I speculated that it might be due to the beating the Marines had been giving them recently. Well it seems these thoughts might have some merit to them as the Marine Corps Times bloggers have followed up.
You beat someone with the stick (Marine Corps) hard and long enough they come around to get the carrots. This is what happened in Fallujah and the surrounding area in Iraq and seems to be happening in Helmand which has been nothing to a hell hole since 2002 for ISAF forces.
Well You Don't Say
Members of Pakistan's security services having ties with the Taliban and al-Qaeda? No really former Pakistani President Musharraf said today in an interview that there are some elements in Pakistan that support the above groups.
According to Imtiaz Gul who wrote an excellent book called "The Most Dangerous Place" the ISI's relationship with the Taliban and al-Qaeda ended in 2007. What has happened since then the attacks in Mumbai, the 2008 Indian Embassy attacked in Kabul which the U.S. has Signals Intelligence linking the attacks to the ISI.
Again folks we know where the problems are Tehran, Riyadh, and Pakistan.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
The plot thickens in Pakistan
The police officer who murdered Punjab Gov. Taseer may have had help within the security detail. As I posted earlier this is a spreading problem inside of Pakistan who cannot control the radicalization of their people. Also this shoots a small hole in the theory that only unemployed and hopeless people become terrorists.
The assassin was a member of a supposed non-political, non-violent religious group in Pakistan. Why the the Pakistanis cannot admit Islam is a political system is either naive or flat stupid. Islam has been part of Pakistan's religious landscape since the country is formed and the reason for the blasphemy law as it stands. As it stands the murderer may have had help/non-intervention on the part of the whole squad of bodyguards in addition lawyers in Pakistan showered this guy with rose petals and 500 imams and scholars praised the killing. This incident may expose wounds in Pakistan they might not wanted to have admitted. If there is a majority shift to wahhbism and deobandism in Pakistan then the world and the region are in big trouble.
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