Saturday, March 10, 2012

Syrian Rebellion

I had opined earlier that without serious outside help which the world would not give the Syrian rebels would more than likely lose.  It appears that the assault on the rebels has begun and they are losing and losing badly.  Syria has access to just too much firepower and man power.  With Iran and Hezbollah both helping plus around a 300,000 man well armed and trained (to fight Israel army) military.  Air power alone is not enough to help them as the first several hundred missions will be to roll back Syrian air defenses which are significantly better than Libya's or even Iran during the first Gulf War. Also the Syrian's have a significant chemical (verified) capability combine this with Iran being able to hit any target it wants in the Middle East with conventional rockets attacking Syrian directly becomes a thorny issue that will have to have substantial Arab backing.  Go back to the poll from yesterday that view the U.S. as the 800lbs gorilla in the room and it is doubtful the Arab street would take well to another Western invasion. 

The rebels just do not have the firepower or a sanctuary like the Vietnamese or the Taliban currently have to sustain a campaign against the Assad government.  The rebels are right in front of Syrian firepower with no way to flee from it.  Unless Turkey wants to step up and with its new found friendship with Iran it ts doubtful the Syrian military and security services are just too strong.

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