ISAF has said that there will be no rest for the Taliban and associated groups over the winter. The fighting in Helmand Province bears this out.
Helmand Province 10 USMC KIA
Logar 1 Army
Patika 1 MC
Ghazni 1 Army
Kandahar 6 Army this happened when an Afghan soldier turned his weapon on the soldiers
Wasit 1 Army
Balkh 2 Army.
This as a report by a British officer recently stated "we are killing them (Taliban) on and industrial level" was released.
This however does no good when there are 2 million plus Afghan refugees in the Tribal Areas of Pakistan that are being radicalized and used as the foot soldiers for the Taliban. What I have said over and over and will continue to say is there will be no peace in Afghanistan as long as the FATA is available to fall back to, recruit, train, and refit. Pakistan has no desire to do this and the U.S. is not effectively able unless we invade Pakistan which will not happen.
That leaves us at a stalemate one I fear no amount of COIN operations can fix.