Wednesday, January 30, 2008

our precarious strategic position

Had an interesting conversation today. From Mr. Yon's site the sunnis in anbar are threatening to to let AQI back in and turn their guns on coalition forces unless the 13,000 members of the CLC are not put into the ISF. Sadr is threatening to not extend the mahdi army ceasefire. What this means is a serious strategic situation for our forces we are down to 250+ in Anbar against 13,000 militiamen that by the way we have been training. If the sunnis rise up again the shia's will come down like two tons of bricks and we will again be in the middle.
Then I read in the Asian Times a scary article about the Talib and AQ making strategic moves in Pakistan to cut off out supply lines and to force Pakistan into a strategic delima with the U.S./and NATO. Now that some 'militant' groups are moving from the tribal area to the cities. If the supply lines are cut or Pakistan is forced to cut the supply lines then we might be well and truly hosed.
A very scary scenario would be if the sunni's can coordinate between AQI and the AQ/Talib elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan this could turn into a world of hurt. Let us hope that
1. The Govt of Iraq makes moves to incorporate the CLCs faster and more of them.
2. Pakistan can hold it together as a country.
As I have been saying Pakistan is the lynch pin. It is where AQ/Talib forces rest, train, and also where their power base is.
Keep an eye on this as it could be scary.

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