First Post / Final paper

Islamic Radicalization

The world is witnessing the rise of the third wave of jihad terror. This wave of jihad does not come from the Middle East to carry out attacks, but instead is born or has immigrated to the West. The threat is no longer from “foreign fanatics” but people who grew up in the west and became radicalized there. This radicalization is not overnight but stems from a combination of factors that finally push the young and male (for the most part) Muslim into becoming terrorists.
Sageman’s theory on the third wave of terrorism suggest that small groups of Muslims from the world wide Diaspora being under or un-educated, under or unemployed, unrepresented in politics, and in a place that is foreign to them and they view as hostile bad together for friendship and solace. These groups begin to feel that the world is subjugating the Ummah, and that Islam itself is under attack. These messages are promulgated on the internet and these groups begin considering terrorism as a way to fight for Islam. This path to radicalization is not the sole province of Islamic radicalization. For example, these factors were identified as the path to extremism for another religion as well.
• Economic deprivation
• Educational under performance
• Insufficient political representation
These are the stated grievances of the Irish Catholics who had little to gain in supporting the status quo of the Protestant controlled government of Ireland.
According to Sageman, another catalyst for the third wave of jihadists since 9/11 is the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Most of the world including Islamic countries, view the U.S. attack on the Taliban and al-Qaeda as justified. The same could not be said about the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Iraq has become the cause célèbre for jihadists, breeding deep resentment of the U.S. involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. This resentment towards the U.S. invasion of Iraq however does not stop at the young potential terrorists but has affected every part of Muslim Society. Nader Fergany an Egyptian academic, democracy advocate, and author of the United Nations2002 Arab Human Development Report. Mr. Fergany is still angry at the U.S. six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq calling the “Americans the Mongols of the 21st century. ”
Fergany would be the perfect example of the moderate member of the Islamic community to combat the radicalization of Muslim youth. If however the pro democracy members of the Islamic community feel that the U.S. is the “Mongols of the 21st century” what motivation do these moderates have to fight radicalization? This is where Sageman falls short, eight years after 9/11, no large group of moderate Muslims have stood up to inspire the youth of Islam because they too are mad at the United States. While older Muslims may not engage in jihad activities more work needs to be done on where the older demographics of society stand in regard to jihad and terrorist activities. In the mean time, the call to jihad continues to be spread on the internet with no moderation. Websites and forums such as Al-Faluja, Shabakat Ansar Al-Mujahideen, Shabakat Al-Tahadi Al-Islamiyya, Shumukh Al-Islam, Shabakat Hanein, Shabakat Al-Mujahideen Al-Electroniyya, Mutadayat Al-Boraq Al-Islamiyya, and Ma'arik Islamic Network are the most popular of the wannabe jihadist.
Sageman makes a valid point in saying that “it is not the role of the West to tell Muslims what is and is not Islam. ” However, the Organization of the Islamic Conference is calling on the U.N. to criminalize the criticism of Islam. Sageman calls on the West, not to make Muslims feel more aggrieved, but to criminalize for criticism is taking this much too far. Any idea or religion that has as some of its central tenants to convert, kill, or subjugate unbelievers should be open to criticism and discussion. There is no world wide protection for Christians, Buddhists or Wiccans that equals what Muslims are calling for. Following the release of pictures of Mohammed in a Dutch news paper the Muslim world erupted.


While Piss Christ brought about criticism and outrage, there were no buildings destroyed, or threats being made to commit acts of terrorism. This is a challenge for the West and Islam, as the belief in freedom of the press is central to Western democracies it can also lead to events that are insulting to Muslims. Where does the sensitivity to Muslims sensibilities end?
Another issue that needs further study is what is being taught by leading Islamic figures about jihad? Until November 2003, the Islamic Affairs Department of the Saudi Arabian embassy carried the following statement on its website “The Muslims are required to raise the banner of jihad in order to make the word of Allah supreme in this world, to remove all forms of injustice and oppression, and to defend Muslims. If Muslims do not take up the sword, the evil tyrants of this earth will be able to continue oppressing the weak and the helpless. ” It should be remembered that most of the 9/11 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia. The message of jihad that is being spread over the internet must be addressed by every school of Islamic teaching. Until then, jihadist ideology will continue to be part of Islamic radicalization. All four Sunni schools agree on the importance of jihad to Islam. Abi Zayd al Qayrawani, a tenth century Malike jurist declared:
The Maliki teach that Jihad is a precept of Divine institution. Its performance by certain individuals may dispense others from it. We Malikis maintain that it is preferable not to begin hostilities with the enemy before having invited the latter to embrace the religion of Allah except where the enemy attacks first. They have the alternative of either converting to Islam or paying the poll tax, short of which war will be declared on them.
While Sageman addresses the rise of the third wave of jihadist terrorism that has appeared since 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq. He does not address the still intact and very dangerous groups like Hezbollah. It must be remembered that until 9/11 Hezbollah and its affiliates launched the greatest number of attacks and caused the greatest number of Islamic terrorism related casualties.

Marine Barracks Beirut Lebanon 1984
Hezbollah does not rely on small groups of self radicalized young people like the al-Qaeda movement currently does. Hezbollah is one of the strongest non-state actors in the Middle East. While Hezbollah focuses most of its activities on Israel it has shown the capability to launch very destructive attacks abroad. The existence of the international aspect of Hezbollah proves that the organization is part of an international jihadist struggle that uses crime and state sponsorship to wage a campaign of jihad terrorism.
While Sageman provides valid points for the radicalization of small localized cells of terrorists his counter-terrorism model provides nothing that can counter an organization that can rally thousands to chant “death to America.” It is certainly important to know how the new homegrown terrorists become radicalized and how this radical ideology spreads through the internet. Sageman’s research says nothing about the origins of such beliefs, every school of Islamic thought teaches that Islam should be spread through jihad.
Since Muslims long since belief the West attacked them first they have the right to fight jihad. Until the ideology behind jihad can be changed, the United States and the West will have to continue to fight. Muslims are still aggrieved over losing Spain in 1492 this makes Sageman short sighted in his believe that Islamic terrorism will slowly fade away. While the third wave of terrorists have been killing themselves in Iraq fighting the U.S. invasion, when the U.S. withdraws in 2012, what is to prevent these self radicalized terrorist from dying in Washington, DC, Dallas, Paris or London. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia has not salved al-Qaeda and bin Laden’s hatred of the West and America. There is nothing to indicate that the United States withdrawal from Iraq will sooth Muslim resentment of America as another grievance such as the Israeli / Palestinian conflict will continue to enrage the youth of Islam. The ideology of jihad as taught in the Koran will continue to inspire young Muslims to defend the Ummah. Until Muslims themselves become sick of the carnage that is inflicted mainly among co-religionists, the ideology of jihad will continue to perpetuate itself on message boards, at rallies in Lebanon, and mosques around the world and no amount of dialogue, sensitivity, or withdrawal from Muslim lands will stop it. Sageman also falls short in addressing groups such as Hezbollah. Which might have credibility in the Islamic world, but its record of bloodshed and hostility speak for itself. It is not a question of whether the United States should stop Hezbollah but of how. Sageman’s thoughts on counter-terrorism have no relevance to Hezbollah as this group’s hatred of America comes long before the war on terror.


Bibliography
Imposing Freedom. (2009, July 25-31). The Economist , pp. 5-7.
Sageman, M. (2008). Leaderless Jihad Terror Networks in the Twenty First Century. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Silke, A. (2008). Holy Warriors: Exploring the Psychological Process of Jihadi Radicalization. European Journal of Criminology , 99-123.
Spencer, R. (2007). Religion of Peace? Why Christianity is and Islam Isn't. Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing.
Spencer, R. (2005). The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam (and The Crusades). Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing.
White, J. R. (2006). Terrorism and Homeland Security. Belmont,CA: Wadsworth CENGAGE learning.

Articulate

The last month in Pakistan and Afghanistan have been particularly bloody with Taliban/al-Qaeda attacks against both hard military targets and soft civilian or symbolic targets. The Taliban are current engaging in two different methods of warfare one is Mao's rural insurgency which is what the Pakistani military and ISAF and Afghan's are fighting. The second is along the lines of Marighella's concept of of urban terrorism which was the basis of revolution was violence. That small groups of urban terrorists could disrupt the government so much that repressive measures would be brought against the entire population. This would cause the people to rise up against the government and cause its over throw. The problem is the method while used in Central and South America never worked.

The forms of warfare being used by the Taliban and its allies however are proving to be particularly gruesome and are taking an increasingly large toll on the civilian populations of Pakistan and Afghanistan. This is exactly what the Taliban want by attacking the UN in Kabul they are trying to run out the groups that can actually help the people of Afghanistan. By attacking the police and military of Pakistan they weaken the institutions that people turn to for protection. The Taliban want to be seen as the only solution to the violence. Side with us and we will not kill you. This is a strategy that was used with a great deal of success in Vietnam by the Viet Cong who were able to set up a shadow government in areas where central Vietnamese governance was weak. As has already been seen the Afghan people have turned to the Taliban who have set up courts and a taxation process that is much more efficient than the central government.

To combat the urban terrorist in Uruguay the people of the country actually voted in a government that promised a harsh response to the terrorists. A brutal counter terrorist campaign followed. Far from being alienated by this, the workers of Montevideo applauded the governments actions.

While the current argument in the Washington, NATO, Kabul, and Islamabad is how to counter the rise of the Taliban. In my opinion there is not a single strategy that is going to work but will take a combination of things. To start with there needs to be an aggressive kinetic (shooting people) approach to kill as many of the Taliban, drug lords etc. as fast as possible and push them out of the urban areas. We saw this in Anbar province in Iraq it took a whole lot of fighting to get to the point the Sunnis awakened. Then a counter-insurgency strategy that uses the power of the tribes that will reconcile those that can be and force the other into the open. The tribes have been in place in this part of the world longer than any idea of a country has been. A comprehensive way to deal with the poppy production has to be take place. This can be part of the counter-insurgency plan as the growers now have to grow poppy or literally watch their kids starve to death or be killed by the drug lords. Once the people are protected the world needs to chip in and buy the cash crops at the same price as the poppy. Considering that heroin is a world wide problem not just a US problem. This would put the growers in a position to feed the country and two make a living. Once you can employ people they are less liable to plant an IED for $10.

The second problem and maybe the biggest one is the Federally Administered Tribal Area(FATA) of Pakistan. Until the Pakistani Army and ISI stop thinking they need the FATA and the jihadist groups they created as a strategic buffer against India the jihadi problem will never go away. India,Pakistan with the help of China if need be, have to finally come to agreement on the status of Kashmir. Pakistan also needs to realize there are no good Taliban and stop these back room agreements with the Taliban the situation in the Swat valley earlier this year should have been enough to convince them but alas it has not. The tribal areas are in the need of governance the British failed to do so and so has Pakistan this has got to end having a large portion of a country filled with people that have vowed to kill you is never a good idea.

Afghanistan and Pakistan present special problems to the world at large as these two countries have effected world history on a scale that is disproportionate to these size. It will take many years, many lives, much money, and patience. This is a fight however that has to be fought because a victory for the jihadis will only make future generations more likely to be attacked and if Pakistan falls the jihadis will have nuclear weapons which they will not hesitate to use.

For those people who think the Taliban are just boasting

About wanting to hit the US looks like they were making plans. The LeT are affiliated with al-Qaeda and recently gave us the Mumbai India attacks. Thanks to the Jawa Report

Bad Week

It has been a bad week for US, NATO and Afghan forces in Afghanistan this week my thoughts and prayers to all those we have lost.

Good News

NATO supports the wider COIN effort in Afghanistan even though VP Biden does not. It is yet to be see what the White House is going to do about McCrystals request. Yes folks we are still waiting on his decision. It seems the CnC would rather whine about Fox news than get troops in the field.

A little update

Pakistan today had a suicide attacker hit one of the gates at one of its nuclear weapons storage facilities it does not look like an attempt to take the base but this show how vulunerable these sites can be.

Also two of our NATO allies following what appears to be our lead are not committing anymore troops to Afghanistan at this time. This is not good news for the administration or the stability of Afghanistan. The key quote is that they are waiting to see what the US is going to do.

My fear is that the administration is going to do nothing as we are now about on our 81st day since Gen. McCrystal requested more troops....81 days. To deny a commander reinforcements for this long is verging on criminal. Wake up Mr. President there is no voting present here.

Now wait a minute sparky

I thought the President had plan and had given Gen. McCrystal the go ahead to implement the plan. We are now on day 78 of the General's request for troops and have not heard anything from the president except well lets wait on the election, or we need a new plan. ABC has an interesting article about this. While the White House says they are not worried about the polling data it looks like the American public is worried about the situation in Afghanistan.

While the current administration can blame Bush all they want. Afghanistan was under NATO control with the hopes that our allies would be able to conduct counter-insurgency for us. It seems that except for the Brits, Aussies, Lithuanians, and the French at times they have fallen short. It is the British as brave as they are they did not hold the line in Helmend Province.

The President needs to decide now whether to give McCrystal a chance or pull us the hell out yes I said it. However the administration should realize that if that happens the whole region Pakistan included will explode. There will be killings in the streets, the already bad treatment of women will become worse and go into barbarism. Now is not the time to pander to your base sir. Now is the time to worry about the stability of several countries and giving the Taliban and al-Qaeda back their base of operations. Remember sir you said Afghanistan was the "necessary war" now prove it and go win it. Instead of complaining about Fox News stand up grow a set and get on with it.